ROME - 
(NewMediaWire) - December 12, 2014 - Latest indications confirm
that world cereal production will reach an all-time record of more than 2.5
billion tonnes in 2014.
Buoyed by bumper crops in Europe and
a record maize output in the United
States of America, this year's cereal output should reach 2.532
billion tonnes, including rice in milled terms, or 0.3% higher than 2013,
according to FAO's latest Crop Prospects and
Food Situation Report.
The record global cereal harvest in 2014 will outpace projected world cereal
utilization in 2014/15, allowing stocks to rise to their highest level since
2000 and pushing the worldwide stock-to-use ratio, a proxy measure for supply
conditions, to rise to 25.2 percent, its highest level in 13 years, according
to FAO.
However, the report also warns that food insecurity is worsening in a number of
countries due to civil conflicts, adverse weather and the Ebola virus disease
(EVD) outbreak. Some 38 countries are at risk of food insecurity, including 29
in Africa, 3 more countries than reported in
October.
EVD triggered one of the biggest shocks to West Africa's agriculture and food
sectors, as it started to spread when crops were being planted and expanded
throughout the farming cycle, especially in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
FAO warned that local rice prices and those for cassava, the region's second
staple food, showed notable increases in Freetown
and other cities in September.
Adverse weather in the Sahel
region is also expected to result in a sharply reduced harvest - by as much as
38 percent below average in Senegal.
Conflict seriously impacts on food
insecurity
The situation in Syria
is particularly urgent, as a weak harvest is exacerbating strains due to
worsening civil conflict. An estimated 6.8 million people - some refugees in
neighboring countries - are facing severe food insecurity. FAO reports a
notable production decline for the 2014 crop, due to abandoned land, scarce
labor, damaged power stations and canals as well as drought conditions.
The situation in Iraq is also acutely serious, where the
number of people displaced due to civil conflict has tripled since last year to
2.8 million.
One third of the population is in need of urgent food assistance in the Central African Republic (CAR),
where this year's food crop production is estimated to be 58 percent below
average despite improving on 2013, FAO said. It noted an increase in violence
since early October in a country where one in four households has resorted to
negative coping strategies, including selling productive assets and
slaughtering livestock.
Prices of agricultural commodities shot up as much as 70 percent this year in
the CAR. According to FAO, the decline in cereal output was partially mitigated
by a large 45 percent jump in the production of cassava, which though less
nutritious is less reliant on labor and other inputs.
Refugee movements - especially from Sudan's
Darfur region, northern Nigeria,
the CAR and Mali -
have put pressure on local food supplies, notably in Chad, where more than 550,000 people
need food and livelihood assistance, according to the report.
While the recent harvest and delivery of humanitarian aid has offered relief,
more than 6 million people in South
Sudan, Sudan and Somalia
are deemed to be in need of food and livelihood assistance. Prices in those
countries remain at high levels, with sorghum prices running as much as four
times higher in some of the most conflict-affected areas, further deteriorating
vulnerable people's access to food.
Maize supplies stable in Southern and
Eastern Africa
Elsewhere in Africa conditions were better, especially in Southern Africa, where
stable maize prices declined due to ample supplies from this year's bumper
output boosted food security. More stable maize supplies also led to a 78
percent drop in the number of food-insecure persons in Zimbabwe.
Recent harvests and favourable prospects for the second season crops helped
push maize prices down in some countries of East Africa.
Meanwhile, 2014 cereal crop production was slightly below average in North Africa, where Morocco suffered sharp reductions due to
erratic rains while the output in Tunisia
recovered after a poor 2013 harvest.
Dry conditions
result in reduced Central American harvest
Mexico is enjoying a bumper maize
crop and its cereal output is expected to increase by 7 percent above last
year's record harvest, FAO said.
That may ease the production short-fall expected in Central America, where a drought
earlier in the year pushed the maize output down by around 9 percent, resulting
in 400,000 families in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala needing food assistance.
Aggregate cereal output from Europe this year is estimated to be 5.6 percent
higher than 2013, while the U.S.'s
record maize output comes despite less acreage being sowed.
LEARN MORE:
Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report
FAO cereal supply and demand brief
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
Country Report on Central African Republic
Global Information and Early Warning System
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